Outlook: Amid diverse and growing risks, organizations face a fragmented landscape

Data from an annual analysis shows most people perceive their environment to be riskier this year.  

International SOS released its 2024 Risk Outlook, and 65% of those surveyed feel long-term and emerging issues are converging to produce a complex, polarized, and unpredictable landscape between and within countries, with risks for organizations amplified by ongoing conflict and confusion. 

All in all, the world feels more fragmented and fragile right now, the report concluded. 

A greater range of countries are wielding influence on the global stage, including Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Organizations will need to navigate new blocs and alliances in 2025, especially as old world powers falter or fade in the face of increased nativism and protectionism. 

These trends “will lead to policies focused on bringing industries back home, prioritizing national resources, and tightening border controls, which will affect immigration, trade and industrial strategies,” the report said. “Governments will increasingly rely on sanctions and regulations to manage emerging technologies, including cryptocurrencies, privacy issues, and artificial intelligence.” 

Rogue and non-state actors have grown more disruptive in trade routes, civil aviation and local security. 

The rapid pace of conflicts—such as the two-week militia surge and rapid toppling of the Assad regime in Syria—is also complicating security and risk managers’ ability to keep up. 

Among survey respondents, 69% said geopolitics will be very or fairly likely to have a significant impact on their organization or people in 2025. 

Internal political changes are affecting private organizations, too, including widespread concerns about targeted political violence in the United States, growing polarization in the wake of rising crime in Chile, and ongoing political disputes in France, South Korea, and other nations. 

“All politics may be local, but so is all risk management,” the report said. “Organizations working in more divided locations must be more sensitive and judicious to avoid and reduce risks for local people in their own countries.” 

“Fueled by the awareness of the growing risks to our existence and feelings of inevitability and hopelessness,” mental health issues continue to grow worldwide, the report said. 

Mis- and disinformation are directly linked to the development of anxiety, and 27% of survey participants said they have had to grapple with misinformation’s disruptive effects. Inaccurate information makes it difficult for organizations to collect accurate intelligence while also triggering tension, polarization, and conflict among the workforce, the report said. 

Risk managers surveyed said it was very likely that their organization would be affected in the next 12 months by stress and burnout (78%), the impact of the cost of living crisis (75%), mental health conditions (70%), political stress and anxiety (65%), quiet quitting (52%), and climate change anxiety (45%). 

“There is anxiety about every risk prediction—in both the security and medical landscapes,” the report said. “While it is imperative to acknowledge and talk about risks, conversations must include the message that action will make a difference. To give us a sense of control over our circumstances, actions must be achievable for individual people, individual employees, and individual organizations, rather than nebulous calls for government action or policy changes.” 

Among the top 30 most published alert themes from International SOS in the past year, 12 were climate-related, and four were strongly related to climate-related events. Unless meaningful progress is made, the outlook on climate threats remains grim. 

The report noted that 55% of organizations said they have been affected by events attributed to climate change, including extreme weather, droughts, floods, and pollution. 

“Motivated by concerns for liability, business continuity, and insurance, many organizations have assessed the vulnerabilities of their assets,” the report said. “However, few have evaluated the health and security risks that climate change poses to their employees and other stakeholders.” 

New technology could change the game by improving weather modeling and surveillance to allow for live-saving mitigation. Digital twins are also being used to improve land and water management, among other technologies. 

“Vast amounts of data captured by satellite help measure and mitigate climate change, natural disasters and infectious disease transmission,” the report added.