Health care worker shortfall getting expensive

A new study shows nationwide shortages of health care labor are projected, with a total deficit of 100,000 workers by 2028. Populous states, such as California, Texas and Pennsylvania, are expected to weather the storm with estimated labor supply that exceeds demand. However, acute shortages are projected in states such as New York and New Jersey. 

The data comes from the Mercer report “Future of the U.S. Healthcare Industry.”  

Approximately 16.9 million individuals currently work in health care occupations. If United States workforce trends hold, the researchers project a total supply of 18.6 million health care workers in 2028, an increase of more than 1.5 million people from 2023. “That looks reassuring on the surface, yet during the same period the need for these workers will grow to around 18.7 million,” the authors wrote. That adds up to an overall shortage of critical health care labor in the country of more than 100,000 workers within five years.  

States with projected surplus of workers include California (16,591), Pennsylvania (16,036), Texas (9,035), Minnesota (8,614), and Washington State (8,414). Shortages are projected for Georgia (11,308), Massachusetts (12,329), Tennessee (16,719), New Jersey (17,769), and New York (61,474). 

What has the researchers concerned is the increased health care needs of an ageing population. Americans are older today than ever before, with one in six people at or older than age 65. Health care expenditure data shows, according to the researchers, that older people spend more money on services as they encounter more health issues. Meanwhile, census projections show a steady increase in this age group toward year 2100. Associated increases in health care expenditure will thus continue to drive demand into the foreseeable future.  

COVID related stress and burnout lead the reasons for the shortfall. More than one in five physicians, three in 10 advanced practice providers and two in five nurses considered leaving their current practice within two years. By 2022, 100,000 registered nurses had left the workforce because of stress, burnout, and retirement. This exodus might continue with results from a 2023 survey showing that about half of clinicians (doctors and nurses) in the U.S. considered leaving their current role during the next two to three years and of those one in three considered leaving health care altogether.  

Under-compensation and wage stagnation are other critical factors that can impact the supply of different health care occupations, according to the authors. In particular, median wage growth (or decline) has differed historically depending on the occupation, socioeconomic status, and demographics of workers. The majority of nurses in one survey reported feeling underpaid, with some experts noting gender pay gaps in the occupation. Many health care support workers — though essential to the functioning of the U.S. health system — report median pay less than $15 per hour. 

Health care employers need to be strategic about their compensation to drive long-term talent attraction and retention while also addressing gender pay gaps, according to the authors. Workers will continue to change jobs or leave the health care industry altogether if they feel they are not being adequately compensated — which affects all of us seeking health care now and in the future.