Week in Review: Jan. 12, 2025

December tax collections either lagged or exceeded targets by big margins, depending on whether a transfer related to 2024's expanded sales tax holiday is factored into the totals, but normal revenue streams were generally on target, according to the Office of Budget and Management (OBM). In the most recent budget bill, 135-HB33 (Edwards), lawmakers created an expanded sales tax holiday on most items priced at $500 or less, supported by a $750 million fund lawmakers set aside to cover the revenue loss. However, the actual fiscal effect was nowhere near that. As a result, the September revenues reported in October 2024 appeared to exceed estimates by more than half a billion dollars. And in the December revenues reported Tuesday, a smaller than expected transfer from that sales tax holiday fund lawmakers created made overall tax revenues look like they missed by $140.8 million. Excluding effects of the transfer makes revenues appear to be nearly $320 million over estimates. The administration made a transfer of about $123 million for the holiday, below the $584 million transfer they had expected to make.

The Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT) is asking for a nearly $1.5 billion increase in its proposed budget request for FY26-27, with a continued focus on safety for the upcoming biennium. The total request, which was provided by OBM to Hannah News along with those of other agencies, in response to a public records request, is for $9.5 billion over the biennium, up from the agency's $8 billion request for the FY24-25 biennium. In a letter to OBM included in the request, ODOT Director Pamela Boratyn said the budget furthers ODOT's mission "of providing a transportation system that is safe, well-maintained, accessible, and positioned for the future." The budget proposal allocates approximately $7 billion of the $9.5 billion requested for maintenance and reconstruction of the state's existing highway system over the next two years, Boratyn said. Noting that the DeWine administration increased safety spending by 54 percent in its first term, leading to a drop in traffic deaths and serious injuries in 2022 and 2023, Boratyn said the budget proposal includes $191 million for highway safety projects in each fiscal year.

Economist and Regionomics Owner Bill LaFayette called the outlook for 2025 "not so cheerful" during the Columbus Metropolitan Club's forum Wednesday, saying he expects to see a "measly 4,500 jobs" added in the region, an addition of 0.4 percent compared to the current 1.1 million jobs there. "That's actually only a touch less than the 5,200 jobs that it looks like we got last year," LaFayette said further, adding he wished they'd been closer to his expectation of 9,800 jobs added. He also said 2025 is likely to be the fourth consecutive year in which the local job growth rate is "much less" than the national average. That is expected to be around 1 percent this year, LaFayette added.

The last full week of December saw Ohio jobless claims jump by just over 3,000, the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services (ODJFS) said on Friday. Ohioans filed 12,414 initial unemployment claims the previous week, which was 3,099 more than the previous week, ODJFS said. The agency said about 1,000 of those have been flagged for more stringent identity verification, to ensure they are not fraudulent. The eight-week average on initial claims is 8,834.