April tax revenues miss by $224 million, taking FY24 shortfall to $446 million

Higher than expected refund totals drove a $154.8 million shortfall in income tax collections compared to estimates for April, making up the bulk of an overall $224.4 million or 8.4% miss in tax revenues versus forecasts, according to preliminary data from the Office of Budget and Management (OBM).  

Fiscal year-to-date tax revenues are now off by $446 million or nearly 2%, driven almost entirely by the personal income tax, which is 5.5% or $453.9 million below estimates. Tax collections for the first 10 months of FY24 reached $22.75 billion versus expectations of $23.2 billion.  

Sales taxes were also behind estimates by nearly $31 million in April, with a $42.2 million miss on non-auto sales taxes offset by an $11.2 million overperformance in the auto sales tax. For FY24 so far, sales taxes are almost in line with forecasts, down just $14.3 million or one-tenth percent.  

Total tax receipts for April reached $2.45 billion versus expectations of $2.67 billion.  

Tax collections for FY24 so far lag comparable figures for the prior year. The state had collected $23.4 billion at this point in FY23, a $659 million difference.  

“Ohio sales taxes are performing in line with our estimates this fiscal year, while the personal income tax continues to experience higher than anticipated refund payments. The Office of Budget and Management will analyze data throughout the next two months as we close FY24 with a balanced budget,” said OBM Director Kimberly Murnieks in a statement.  

Gov. Mike DeWine said he’s keeping his eye on the lagging state tax revenue collections, but he isn’t highly concerned yet.  

“I don’t think anyone’s becoming horribly alarmed, but it’s something we’re certainly watching,” he said.  

Asked if he thinks the trends are driven by tax policy changes or economic activity, he said it’s probably a combination of both.  

Provided by Hannah News Service, Inc.