A panel of lawmakers Nov. 7 said they don’t expect a busier than usual lame duck session, and, looking forward to next year’s budget cycle, expect to have a leaner budget due to the end of pandemic-era federal money and lower revenues.
The panel, which included House Speaker Pro Tempore Scott Oelslager (R-North Canton), Rep. Dani Isaacsohn (D-Cincinnati), Sen. Rob McColley (R-Napoleon), and Sen. Bill DeMora (D-Columbus), spoke on a range of topics at Impact Ohio’s Post Election Conference in Columbus.
All of the legislators said they were excited for the incoming additions to their caucuses after Tuesday’s elections, and noted all of their caucus incumbents won re-election. Democrats picked up two seats in each of the House and Senate, with Isaacsohn saying the pickup of two seats by his caucus is significant.
McColley also noted the pickups by Democrats, adding that it occurred even though the state voted by 13 points for President-elect Donald Trump. He attributed it largely to the redistricting plan adopted last year through a unanimous bipartisan vote, and said that shows that they can come up with a map in a bipartisan fashion in a way that was intended when the redistricting amendments were passed last decade.
The conversation turned to the failure of Issue 1, with the Republicans praising the defeat and saying Ohioans saw through it, and Democrats saying there was more work to do.
On whether there will be any additional redistricting reforms, McColley said he thinks there will be discussions on whether the process can be improved.
“That may very well involve discussions around who sits on the commission,” he said. “I think that Ohioans looked at [Issue 1] and they said a proposal that makes secondary keeping communities of interest together, keeping counties whole, minimizing splits, all those different things that voters overwhelmingly voted for and we agreed upon in a bipartisan basis in 2015 and 2018 ought to be preserved going forward.”
Democrats said that while they don’t want to “re-litigate” the debate over Issue 1, they pointed to what they said was deceiving language. Isaacsohn said that despite a red wave in this year’s election, Ohio saw roughly the same partisan split it has seen over the last several years.
“We still do not live in a 24-9 state,” he said, noting the Republican-Democrat split in the Senate of the 136th General Assembly. “We do not live in a 65 to 34 state … We still have a widely imbalanced Legislature as it relates to the partisan makeup in the state of Ohio.”
He also noted that no incumbent in the General Assembly lost re-election.
“Every incumbent should not win in every year for any party. That’s not healthy. Elections are a referendum on whether we are doing a good enough job. I’m sorry. I love my colleagues. But there is no way that 132 of them are doing a good enough job. … Something is just off still.”
Oelslager agreed with McColley, and said there is an opportunity to continue dialogue on redistricting. DeMora said he doesn’t see another issue coming next year, but if something does come in the next few years, he hopes it is better written. He said redistricting is not high on the list of issues important to the average voter at the moment.
Asked about the upcoming lame duck, McColley, who is expected to be the next Senate president, said compared to previous lame duck sessions, there aren’t a lot of issues that need to get done. He said one task for the Senate to complete is its review of licensures as part of its deregulation effort so those licenses do not sunset.
Oelslager said House Republicans plan to continue their philosophy of making Ohio a good place to raise a family, begin a family, and for people to want to move here. Going into lame duck, they have been talking to members about their priorities.
Isaacsohn said he hopes property tax relief is one of the issues that gets taken up, pointing to school levies that failed around the state and connecting it to the concerns about rising property taxes. He said there are a number of bipartisan bills already in both chambers that he said he hopes they can get across the finish line.
McColley pointed to other efforts to address property tax relief by lawmakers, and said in his opinion, they should address more of the underlying problems in the system.
DeMora said he hopes there aren’t any lame duck sessions “so we don’t screw the state over like we normally do in the other years. That’s my preference but I don’t think that will come to fruition.”
He echoed Isaacsohn on property tax reform, saying his constituents are clamoring for some relief. He said there are also other bipartisan bills that have passed the Senate that have not received a House vote, including legislation to protect election workers, that he hopes will get through.
The panel predicted a lean year for next year’s biennial budget discussions. Oelslager noted the three biggest items – Medicaid, “educated and incarcerated” saw increased funding in all three areas. He also noted that extra pandemic-era federal funding is going away, and lawmakers are watching the cash flow. The transportation budget will also be smaller because of lower federal funding.
McColley said the state has been fortunate generally that revenues have increased every biennium, allowing them to enact tax cuts and focus on other priorities. He said estimates have been missed on several occasions in the last biennium, though the budget remains balanced because of efforts by the DeWine administration.
“This could be a different budget depending on how a lot of this plays out. Obviously, the economy is in a little bit different shape now than it was two years ago, four years ago, even six years ago,” McColley said. “I would say our priorities remain largely the same. In the Senate, as far as Republicans are concerned, we’d like to continue to reduce the tax burden felt by Ohioans across the board. We would like to continue to deregulate across the board, if we’re given the opportunity. And we would also like to expand, or talk a little bit more about how we can increase education options for the people in the state of Ohio. I would expect those three items are probably going to get an awful lot of attention.”
DeMora said he can find a billion dollars in the budget if they get rid of vouchers, and said if they gave the money spent on tax cuts for wealthier Ohioans to working class people, there would be more money generated.
He said that because there is no extra federal funds coming, something will need to replace that.
“My guess is that even though the governor is not a fan of either marijuana or gaming, the only new source of revenue that I see coming in his budget are from marijuana or the expansion of gaming. We’re going to see if the governor is more into fiscal responsibility or if his opposition to both gaming and marijuana is going to have him not look at those two sources of funding for the state when all this federal money is no longer here,” DeMora said.
Isaacsohn said the reason they are going to have a tougher time is because of some of the decisions made in the previous budget, adding some of the tax cuts mean that the state has permanently limited its ability to raise revenue.
“We are going to prey on people’s vices to try and raise revenue,” he said. “I’m not even saying it’s a bad idea. We should be honest about the choices we are making. Instead of taxes on the wealthiest people, we are going to try and raise revenue by hoping people gamble more or do more substances. And that’s an odd choice to make, for policymakers to make, and we should make it honestly.”
The panel was also asked about any policy issues that probably won’t get touched in the budget that need to be addressed. DeMora pointed to housing, saying if all of the jobs will be coming in, there will need to be housing for the workers. He also pointed to child care and elder care, saying that the state does not pay those who do those jobs enough money to continue doing it.
McColley said he believes child care is an area where government’s trying to solve the problem has probably made it more expensive because of all the regulations and requirements. He said when the Senate tried to deregulate it, there was not enough support.
He said energy is the biggest issue looming for lawmakers. While they all have different ideas on how to address it, there needs to be more baseload generation in the state.
Isaacsohn said that the General Assembly needs to be careful how it addresses energy issues because of “Ohio’s spotty record on that in the last decade. But I do think there’s opportunity there.”
He said many issues aren’t partisan, including child care, housing, or student attendance.
The panel was also asked about cultural issues getting in the way of addressing other issues. DeMora blamed a focus on cultural issues on gerrymandered districts, while Isaacsohn said he wished they would take one month of the session to focus on the cultural issues so the other months could be spent on more important issues.
McColley said lawmakers can do both, and said on some issues, people look to them because they feel they have no other remedy than their state government. On transgender youth in women’s sports, he said that was an issue that was front and center in the election, and campaigns leaned into it, and the voters decided the way they did. He also pointed to polls that show voters are concerned about women’s sports.