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Treasury announces marketable borrowing estimates

Written on Aug 18, 2022

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing for the July – September 2022 and October – December 2022 quarters. 

During the July – September 2022 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $444 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $650 billion. The borrowing estimate is $262 billion higher than announced in May 2022, primarily due to changes to projections of fiscal activity and the estimated impact of Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) redemptions ($120 billion). 

During the October – December 2022 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $400 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $700 billion. This includes the impact of an estimated $139 billion in SOMA redemptions. 

During the April – June 2022 quarter, Treasury borrowed $7 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $782 billion. In May 2022, Treasury estimated a pay down of $26 billion and assumed an end-of-June cash balance of $800 billion. The $33 billion difference in privately-held net market borrowing resulted primarily from the $30 billion in net SOMA redemptions.